Linking the past with the future: Reconstruction of historic and prehistoric ecosystem dynamics through integration of fire and forest histories and dynamic ecosystem modeling

The PALEOBGC project links empirical fire history and climate reconstruction in central Oregon with landscape fire, vegetation, ecosystem process, and climate change modeling using the FireBGCv2 simulation modeling platform. FireBGCv2 will be used to simulate historical and potential future fire and vegetation dynamics at six sites representing a range of vegetation types and ecological conditions. See the Central Oregon Fire History Project for more information.

Goals and Objectives: 1) Develop methodology for simulating historical and potential future fire and vegetation dynamics, especially under conditions of past climate variability and future climate changes; 2) use simulation modeling to increase the spatial scale of inference currently achieved through detailed fire and forest histories; 3) assess departure of landscape patterns and ecosystem processes from historical range and variability through simulation modeling of potential future climate conditions; 4) quantify past and potential future climate drivers of wildfire; 5) provide managers with information on landscape fire, vegetation, and ecosystem process.

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS (Staff)

Rachel A. Loehman, Research Ecologist; Emily Heyerdahl, Research Forester; Robert E. Keane, Research Ecologist and Deputy Program Manager; Director of the Fire Modeling Institute; Supervisory Research Ecologist

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS

Donald A. Falk, University of Arizona, School of Natural Resources

FUNDING ORGANIZATIONS

Rocky Mountain Research Station