Estimating critical climate-driven thresholds in landscape dynamics using spatial simulation modeling: climate change tipping points in fire management

Existing methods for modeling effects of climate changes on ecosystems and wildland fire depend on potentially problematic gridded data generated by Global Circulation Models (GCMs). These gridded climate data sets contain a high degree of uncertainty, especially at finer spatial scales. Alternatively, we have designed synthetic weather streams systematically modified from historical data that define potential climate futures. These are used in the FireBGCv2 simulation modeling environment to identify important ecological tipping points in response to incremental climate changes. Such threshold-based simulations will allow land managers to proactively plan for various climate futures, reduce landscape vulnerability, and increase ecosystem resilience. Simulations are run for 500 years to establish new regime conditions, and are perfomred across multiple landscapes representing a diversity of climate and fire regimes.

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS

Rachel A. Loehman, Research Ecologist
Robert E. Keane, Research Ecologist and Deputy Program Manager; Director of the Fire Modeling Institute; Supervisory Research Ecologist;

GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

1) Develop methodology for modeling potential climate change effects to ecosystems that is independent of GCM inputs; 2) Detect and quantify tipping points based on multiple response variables: burned area, landscape fire return interval, fire severity, vegetation composition and productivity, stand carbon; 3) Quantify effects of potential future climate changes on landscape resilience and resistance; 4) Develop region-specific recommendations for proactive landscape management under climate change conditions.

FUNDING ORGANIZATIONS

Joint Fire Sciences Program, project ID 09-3-01-17.