BCM-PVT - Bioclimatic modeling of potential vegetation types

Predicting plant species shifts under changing climates using bioclimatic modeling of potential vegetation types

Land managers need new tools for accounting for novel futures due to climate change. Species distribution modeling has been used extensively to predict future distributions of individual species under different climates, but the map products are too coarse for operational use and creating the suite of species projections needed for comprehensive land management is impossible due to lack of data and expertise. A new method for predicting ecosystem characteristics, which are germane to land management, into the future is develop in this project.

Potential Vegetation Types (PVTs) were mapped using conventional statistical modeling techniques from ecosystem process and climate variables. Then, future projections of climate are used to generate future PVT maps. Species presence for a number of species as from the PVT classification were then mapped into the future using both the current and future PVT maps, as were other ecological characteristics associated with the PVT categories were also mapped. Using this fast, inexpensive, and comprehensive alternative method, future maps of many ecological characteristics commonly used in land management can be easily created using the PVT associations to show possible climate change scenarios.

Using this fast, inexpensive, and comprehensive alternative method, future maps of many ecological characteristics commonly used in land management can be easily created using the PVT associations.

Images

The flow chart of procedures used in this study to create future Potential Vegetation Type (PVT) and species presence maps.
The Southwest Crown of the Continent (SWCC) study area.
Predictions of Potential Vegetation Types
BCM-PVT predictions
Predictions of Larix occidentalis (LAOC) distributions

Select Publications & Products

Keane, RE; Holsinger L. 2020 [in review]. An alternative to species niche modeling for predicting plant species distributions under changing climates: bioclimatic modeling of potential vegetation types. Forest Ecology and Management [refereed]