- Forest landscape modeling and scenario planning
- Restoration of fire adapted systems
- Socioecological aspects of wildfire risk governance
- Transboundary risk assessment
Alan's interests are in the design, development, and testing of quantitative models to disentangle conflicting policies and understand management tradeoffs at multiple scales and across social and biophysical domains. System-level drivers are studied from both a socioeconomic and ecological perspective to gain governance level understanding of fire management. Landscape modeling software is used to conduct scenario planning to understand large scale interactions between natural disturbances and wildfire over time. Current focus is on transboundary wildfire risk from public lands to developed areas, and how risk transmission is amplified on landscapes fragmented by ecological conditions and risk governance systems. This information is used to analyze how the scale of planning and governance affect progress towards reducing socioeconomic and ecological impacts from wildfires. Of particular interest are identifying functional, spatial, and temporal scale mismatches in transboundary wildfire risk governance, and using this information to design planning frameworks that address the spectrum of fire ecology and management issues on mixed tenure landscapes.
Selected Publications & Products
Ager, A. A., C. Evers, M. A. Day, H. K. Preisler, A. M. G. Barros, and M. Nielsen-Pincus. 2017. Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance. PLoS ONE 12: e0172867. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172867
Ager, A. A., K. C. Vogler, M. A. Day, and J. D. Bailey. 2017. Economic opportunities and trade-offs in collaborative forest landscape restoration. Ecological Economics 136:226-239.
Ager, A. A., M. A. Day, K. C. Short, and C. R. Evers. 2016. Assessing the impacts of federal forest planning on wildfire risk mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Landscape and Urban Planning 147:1-17.
Ager, A. A., M. A. Day, and K. Vogler. 2016. Production possibility frontiers and socioecological tradeoffs for restoration of fire adapted forests. Journal of Environmental Management 176:157-168.
Ager, A. A., J. Kline, and A. P. Fischer. 2015. Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning. Risk Analysis 35:1393–1406.